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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."