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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising collectively. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still